Beneath the Ban of Abortion: Evidence from the USSR (with Sultan Mehmood and Hosny Zoabi)

Capitalizing on a policy discontinuity created by Stalin's abrupt ban on abortions in 1936, this paper provides evidence of the demographic and public health consequences of restricting abortions using newly digitized archival documents from the Soviet Union. Our difference-in-differences and IV estimates indicate a substantial increase in birth rates post-ban on abortions, aligning with Soviet objectives for population growth. However, the ban on abortions coincided with a substantial increase in infant mortality—a linkage oft insinuated but seldom demonstrated causally. Subsequent scrutiny of recently declassified criminal records from the Soviet Union on illegal abortions indicates that regions with high abortion rates pre-ban show a distinct uptick in illegal abortions and a rise in female deaths directly related to abortions. Female deaths not directly related to abortions are unaffected.