Past Session
Monday, September 15, 2025
17:30h
Presented by
Alena Gorbuntsova (University of Chicago)

Nation Building or Empire Building? Evidence from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

Why do leaders initiate costly wars? Traditional explanations emphasize empire building or resource extraction. We advance a different view: war as a tool of nation-building. Using the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we show that President Putin’s decision is best understood as an effort to consolidate domestic power by appealing to ethnic Russians and strengthening national identity in the face of declining popularity. Ethnic Russians are systematically more likely to turn out and support Putin, and this effect is not more substantial in places with symbols of imperial history, such as statues of Lenin and WWII monuments. Instead, the mobilization response is concentrated among areas with a pre-existing ethnic Russian presence. These patterns remain robust to alternative strategies that account for electoral fraud. We situate these findings within the broader literature on the causes of conflict and the political economy of nation-building. The evidence is most consistent with war being used less to expand the empire and more to forge internal cohesion, rally support, and preserve regime survival.

About this workshop

The Public Governance workshop is an online seminar series focused on state of art research in political economy that uses non-traditional data and data-intensive methods.

The workshop gives a platform for the research on the role of governance in designing and developing better policies. Key features are the political environment, the role of the media, the engagement of stakeholders such as civil society and firms, the market structure and level of competition, and the independence of public regulators, among others. Particular emphasis is placed on research with NLP methods due to the proven usefulness of transforming text into data for further econometric analysis.

Periodicity: Mondays from 17h30 to 19h.